During the 2009 season, Luke Jones will present Nine Orioles Innings every Monday, sharing his thoughts on what’s happening with the Baltimore Orioles. It will feature a mix of serious analysis and the lighter side of Orioles baseball.
1. It’s hard to believe it was only two years ago that Jeremy Guthrie was an unknown heading to Baltimore on Opening Day 2007 as a long man in the Orioles bullpen. The Opening Day starter now represents the only safe bet in a rotation that is still deciding on the three starters to fill the back end.
The pitching staff will need Guthrie to remain healthy after making trips to the disabled list in each of his first two seasons with the Orioles. The rotation will be extremely thin as is, so the loss of Guthrie could cause a massive implosion.
The organization hopes that Guthrie’s terrific work ethic will influence the many young pitching prospects expected to arrive in Baltimore over the next two years. He may not be a true ace, but Guthrie could provide a calming influence on young pitchers that will undoubtedly experience some growing pains in their first months in the big leagues.
2. Felix Pie has struggled adjusting to his new surroundings this spring, hitting only .216 (through Sunday) and posting a .595 OPS.
With the strong spring performances from Nolan Reimold and Lou Montanez, many are calling for the Pie experiment to end before the team even heads north to Baltimore. The choice is simple when you consider Pie is out of options while Reimold and Montanez can start the season at Triple-A Norfolk.
Are Pie’s critics the same ones that were calling for Nick Markakis to be sent back to the minors when he was hitting around .220 in June of his rookie season in 2006?
While no one expects Pie to become the offensive threat that Markakis is, the young outfielder needs at bats in the big leagues after receiving only 260 at bats in two seasons with the Cubs. The former number-one prospect needs a legitimate chance to play in the majors.
If Pie is still struggling in July and Reimold or Montanez is tearing it up in Triple-A, this questions will be revisited, but for the time being, Pie should be sent out to left field to play everyday.
3. The November unveiling of the new road uniforms displaying “Baltimore” on the front was a far overdue move by the organization to restore some civic pride. The city name will appear on the road uniforms for the first time since 1972.
To take full advantage of the occasion, the Orioles should buck tradition and wear the new road uniforms on Opening Day despite it being a home game.
With the large number of Yankees fans expected to attend, detractors will argue it’s a road game for the Orioles anyway. Why not debut the new gray threads at home?
4. Andy MacPhail’s decision to send Matt Wieters to Triple-A to delay the start of his service time is well-documented and makes sense from a financial standpoint, especially when remembering Scott Boras represents the 22-year-old catcher.
However, should the team decide to keep Wieters in Norfolk until June when he would lose eligibility for Super-2 status, many will view the move as another penny-pinching maneuver.
Though delaying Wieters’ promotion would eliminate a year of arbitration, possibly saving millions, it would harm his ability to win Rookie of the Year as well as simply impede the growth of the catching prospect.
Mimicking Tampa Bay’s approach with Evan Longoria by waiting until the middle of April to promote Wieters is financially prudent; waiting until June is just being cheap.
5. Corner infielders Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora are both free agents after the season and were the top run producers on the club last year, driving in 212 runs combined.
With no viable prospects at first or third base ready for the big leagues, MacPhail will have to consider bringing back at least one of the two veterans.
Newly-signed infielder Ty Wigginton would be a fine one-year stopgap at either first or third, but the team would have to look to acquire another corner infielder.
The team does hold an $8million club option for Mora, but Huff is five years younger.
Both players are likely to be shopped at the trading deadline in late-July, but look for the club to explore short-term extensions for both players as MacPhail searches for younger answers at each corner.
6. Japanese newcomer Koji Uehara will hold the second spot in the starting rotation, but the Orioles hope he means much more to the future of the organization.
A successful season for the veteran would potentially open the door for other talent from Japan and the Far East to consider the Orioles for their American destination.
Watching Japan win its second World Baseball Classic made it apparent that many more Japanese players have the ability to succeed in Major League Baseball, so the Orioles need to continue to increase their scouting presence in the Far East.
Uehara finding success in Baltimore would not only improve the team’s prospects in 2009 but could lead to more Japanese talent landing with the Orioles in the future.
7. It’s difficult to believe the Orioles are even considering Adam Eaton for the starting rotation. Even putting his spring numbers aside (6.75 ERA), the right-hander was hammered in Philadelphia the last two seasons, posting a 5.80 ERA in 2008 and a 6.29 ERA in 2007.
Ouch.
You might be wondering what his numbers were on the road, considering Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s park. Eaton pitched to a 4.81 road ERA in 2008 and 6.12 in 2007.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement, especially when you consider Camden Yards is known for the home run.
With the seemingly endless search to fill the starting rotation, the Orioles might want to take a long look at the Bird (no, I’m not talking about Mark Fidrych). He throws some devastating off-speed stuff to the kids in the outfield grass before home games.
Only kidding, or am I? Ask me again in late-April when the bullpen is already being overworked.
The Bird might be throwing some simulated games in the bullpen by that point.
8. Despite the concerns over the starting rotation, the Orioles bullpen looks to be a formidable unit with closer George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Chris Ray providing a triple-threat to shorten the game after six innings.
Ray looks to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and has been dominant, not allowing a run in 11 1/3 innings of spring work.
A fully-recovered Matt Albers would be key to bridging the gap from the starting pitching to the three stoppers in the late innings.
Even with the vast potential, it’s hard to predict how well the bullpen will perform if starting pitching cannot get past the fifth or sixth inning consistently. In recent years, the bullpen is worn out by August, setting up for the collapse down the stretch.
9. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which the Orioles avoid a 12th-straight losing season in 2009 despite the promising future with the improving farm system. The years of losing have begun to run together, and it’s sometimes difficult to believe how long it’s been since a winning team graced Camden Yards.
To put it in perspective, in the Orioles’ last winning season in 1997, Cal Ripken was playing his first full season at third base, interleague play was making its debut, Michael Jordan was winning his fifth NBA championship, and Nick Markakis was in the eighth grade.
Quite a long time.
Extra Innings: For an organization in the midst of 11-straight losing seasons, the Orioles could definitely benefit from a stronger marketing campaign to create excitement for the 2009 season.
Though young pitchers such as Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta were in the major league camp, MASN scheduled only four television appearances for the Orioles in the spring. In fact, Wednesday’s game against the Marlins will mark the first televised Orioles game on MASN in over three weeks.
Yes, televising spring games costs money and does not earn huge ratings, but subscribers are paying hefty fees to receive MASN in their cable lineups. The Orioles owe it to their customers to televise a few more games and could create more interest in the club in the process.
In comparison, the Yankees’ YES Network televised 16 spring games while the Red Sox’ NESN showed nine.
With struggling attendance, the Orioles need to provide more opportunities for fans to follow the team in the spring. Their own cable network is here; they need to use it.
Televising eight or nine spring games is more than reasonable.
For those turning to the radio for their Orioles fix, the flagship radio station 105.7 The Fan abandoned the final eight innings of Sunday’s broadcast following a lengthy rain delay.
While it may not have been a regular season game and will be forgotten quickly, the story is no less pathetic and was even featured on Yahoo! Sports.
With these television and radio blunders, the question begs to be asked: how badly do the Orioles even want their fans back?
The organization needs to try much harder.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
How the NFL Can Boost Revenue Without Changing the 16-Game Schedule
By: Luke Jones
The NFL’s annual league meeting brought much discussion regarding the pending labor showdown, rules changes to improve safety, and commissioner Roger Goodell’s desire to expand the regular season to 18 games.
Though the expiring collective bargaining agreement is the league’s most pressing concern, the juxtaposition of passing new rules to improve players’ safety and the desire to extend the season of such a physically demanding sport seems peculiar, if not preposterous.
Under the proposed plan, the league would shorten its preseason to two games and add two regular season games to the 16-game schedule. An additional bye week would also be included in the schedule, increasing the regular season to 20 weeks.
Though many have called for a shorter preseason to decrease the number of injuries in meaningless games, it’s far more likely for marquee players to suffer injuries having to play two more “real” games with higher stakes and intensity.
In reality, many of the league’s top players partake in only a small portion of the preseason, sometimes sitting out entire games or only playing a series or two in each contest.
If the fundamental goal is to protect the players, would a plan calling for a 12.5 percent (two regular season games) increase in players’ exposure to potential injury really be the answer?
Frankly, the NFL is only interested in increasing its revenue despite these rules changes and calls to increase safety. Using the veil of safety is motivated solely by the revenue the top stars of the league create—stars such as New England’s Tom Brady who missed the entire 2008 season with a knee injury suffered in Week 1.
Goodell and the league can speak of improving player safety, but a few isolated rule changes will not supersede the increased risk of exposing players to injury and fatigue in an expanded regular season.
How often do we see players running on fumes—physically or mentally—by the time they enter the postseason? Now, just add two extra games to that equation. It would be extremely difficult for teams to maintain a high quality of play deep into the playoffs.
Do we really want players that are barely able to compete in the conference championships and Super Bowl?
Traditionalists will also point to the effect an 18-game schedule would have on the record book—both single-season and career numbers alike.
We’ve already seen the records from the 1950s through 1970s crushed due to the progression from a 12-game schedule to 14 games in 1961 to the current 16 games in 1978. There has to be a point when the league begins pushing the limit to maintain some reverence for the history of the game.
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is already rewriting the record book, but an expanded 18-game schedule would provide him with a 50 percent increase in the number of games he can play in a season compared to legendary quarterbacks of the 1950s such as Johnny Unitas playing 12 games a season.
To put this in perspective, using a stat-happy sport such as baseball, Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in a 154-game schedule in 1927. If baseball adopted a 50 percent increase in regular season games, Albert Pujols would have 231 games this season to take aim at the Bambino’s career-high mark.
A current NFL running back playing eight seasons would be able to play 16 more games—one extra season—than all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith would have had in eight years. This could easily be an additional 1,500 rushing yards in a career, a significant boost in climbing the all-time rushing list.
Why even bother keeping statistics anymore?
Though Goodell would never admit it publicly, he is far less concerned in improving player safety and preserving its history than he is in strengthening the moneymaking machine that is the NFL. All of these discussed topics center around increasing revenue.
So how can the league increase revenue while sincerely maintaining safety and protecting the record book?
A far simpler plan would address nearly all of these concerns while still increasing league revenue.
The league does need to revise the preseason schedule. The modern NFL player maintains a high level of conditioning throughout the calendar year, so a four-game preseason is unnecessary.
Dropping one preseason game would provide enough time for coaches to evaluate unproven talent while limiting the risk of injury to established players.
While this would leave an unbalanced home-away schedule of three games, teams could schedule an extra scrimmage at their stadiums to recover lost revenue in seasons when they played only one home preseason game. Though less-appealing to season ticket holders, teams could opt to recover the loss through a prorated increase in the nine remaining home games in the package.
The remaining lost revenue from these 16 preseason games (the total number of league preseason games would decrease from 64 to 48) would be recouped by the proposed changes to the regular season and playoffs.
The elimination of one preseason game would provide an open week in the NFL’s calendar. Instead of increasing the number of regular season games, a second bye week would be added to each team’s regular season schedule.
The NFL included two bye weeks in each team’s schedule in 1993, but the response was unfavorable. However, with the astronomical money involved in the league’s current television contract, the extra week in the regular season would provide more nationally-televised prime-time games with lucrative advertising revenue.
Another benefit from an additional bye week would be added flexibility to schedule international or neutral-site games. One of the biggest complaints from players regarding playing overseas is the sacrifices that have to be made for traveling and adjusting to the different time zone. Providing teams with another bye week would ease the strain of playing in these international games.
The league could easily schedule a few more international games under this plan.
The extra bye week would also provide more recovery time for teams, increasing their chances of remaining healthy for the postseason.
Each team would receive its first bye some time between Week 3 through 9 and the second between Week 10 through 16. All 32 teams would play in Week 17 and 18 to maintain competitive balance.
The most radical change would be to increase the number of playoff teams in each conference to eight, the four division champions and four wild card teams.
With the extra bye week in the regular season schedule, the first-round bye for the top two teams in each conference would be eliminated. No other major professional sport offers byes in the first round of the playoffs, so why should the NFL?
This would create an additional four games in the Wild Card round, improving revenue for these four playoff teams as well as the entire league through added television revenue.
The top team in each conference would still earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the teams would be reseeded for the Divisional round (the best team in the conference would play the worst remaining team).
For good measure, the league could even address the criticism of the current system by no longer promising a home game to each division winner. The four teams with the best records in each conference would play home games in the first round of the postseason. Division winners would only be guaranteed a spot in the postseason, thus creating more incentive for teams having already clinched a weak division to continue competing for one of the top four seeds.
When considering this plan, the league would simply have to examine the lost revenue of 16 total preseason games against the potential revenue gained from an extra week of nationally-televised games, four more playoff games, and the flexibility to schedule more international and neutral-site games.
On top of that, the owners would not have to fight the union over the contractual issues created by increasing the number of games in the regular season schedule.
And even though they are not top priorities, it would actually be a fundamental step in protecting the health of players by adding an extra bye to the schedule while also preserving the game’s modern history.
Will it happen? Probably not, but it’s something to ponder before making radical changes to the fabric of the National Football League.
The NFL’s annual league meeting brought much discussion regarding the pending labor showdown, rules changes to improve safety, and commissioner Roger Goodell’s desire to expand the regular season to 18 games.
Though the expiring collective bargaining agreement is the league’s most pressing concern, the juxtaposition of passing new rules to improve players’ safety and the desire to extend the season of such a physically demanding sport seems peculiar, if not preposterous.
Under the proposed plan, the league would shorten its preseason to two games and add two regular season games to the 16-game schedule. An additional bye week would also be included in the schedule, increasing the regular season to 20 weeks.
Though many have called for a shorter preseason to decrease the number of injuries in meaningless games, it’s far more likely for marquee players to suffer injuries having to play two more “real” games with higher stakes and intensity.
In reality, many of the league’s top players partake in only a small portion of the preseason, sometimes sitting out entire games or only playing a series or two in each contest.
If the fundamental goal is to protect the players, would a plan calling for a 12.5 percent (two regular season games) increase in players’ exposure to potential injury really be the answer?
Frankly, the NFL is only interested in increasing its revenue despite these rules changes and calls to increase safety. Using the veil of safety is motivated solely by the revenue the top stars of the league create—stars such as New England’s Tom Brady who missed the entire 2008 season with a knee injury suffered in Week 1.
Goodell and the league can speak of improving player safety, but a few isolated rule changes will not supersede the increased risk of exposing players to injury and fatigue in an expanded regular season.
How often do we see players running on fumes—physically or mentally—by the time they enter the postseason? Now, just add two extra games to that equation. It would be extremely difficult for teams to maintain a high quality of play deep into the playoffs.
Do we really want players that are barely able to compete in the conference championships and Super Bowl?
Traditionalists will also point to the effect an 18-game schedule would have on the record book—both single-season and career numbers alike.
We’ve already seen the records from the 1950s through 1970s crushed due to the progression from a 12-game schedule to 14 games in 1961 to the current 16 games in 1978. There has to be a point when the league begins pushing the limit to maintain some reverence for the history of the game.
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is already rewriting the record book, but an expanded 18-game schedule would provide him with a 50 percent increase in the number of games he can play in a season compared to legendary quarterbacks of the 1950s such as Johnny Unitas playing 12 games a season.
To put this in perspective, using a stat-happy sport such as baseball, Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in a 154-game schedule in 1927. If baseball adopted a 50 percent increase in regular season games, Albert Pujols would have 231 games this season to take aim at the Bambino’s career-high mark.
A current NFL running back playing eight seasons would be able to play 16 more games—one extra season—than all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith would have had in eight years. This could easily be an additional 1,500 rushing yards in a career, a significant boost in climbing the all-time rushing list.
Why even bother keeping statistics anymore?
Though Goodell would never admit it publicly, he is far less concerned in improving player safety and preserving its history than he is in strengthening the moneymaking machine that is the NFL. All of these discussed topics center around increasing revenue.
So how can the league increase revenue while sincerely maintaining safety and protecting the record book?
A far simpler plan would address nearly all of these concerns while still increasing league revenue.
The league does need to revise the preseason schedule. The modern NFL player maintains a high level of conditioning throughout the calendar year, so a four-game preseason is unnecessary.
Dropping one preseason game would provide enough time for coaches to evaluate unproven talent while limiting the risk of injury to established players.
While this would leave an unbalanced home-away schedule of three games, teams could schedule an extra scrimmage at their stadiums to recover lost revenue in seasons when they played only one home preseason game. Though less-appealing to season ticket holders, teams could opt to recover the loss through a prorated increase in the nine remaining home games in the package.
The remaining lost revenue from these 16 preseason games (the total number of league preseason games would decrease from 64 to 48) would be recouped by the proposed changes to the regular season and playoffs.
The elimination of one preseason game would provide an open week in the NFL’s calendar. Instead of increasing the number of regular season games, a second bye week would be added to each team’s regular season schedule.
The NFL included two bye weeks in each team’s schedule in 1993, but the response was unfavorable. However, with the astronomical money involved in the league’s current television contract, the extra week in the regular season would provide more nationally-televised prime-time games with lucrative advertising revenue.
Another benefit from an additional bye week would be added flexibility to schedule international or neutral-site games. One of the biggest complaints from players regarding playing overseas is the sacrifices that have to be made for traveling and adjusting to the different time zone. Providing teams with another bye week would ease the strain of playing in these international games.
The league could easily schedule a few more international games under this plan.
The extra bye week would also provide more recovery time for teams, increasing their chances of remaining healthy for the postseason.
Each team would receive its first bye some time between Week 3 through 9 and the second between Week 10 through 16. All 32 teams would play in Week 17 and 18 to maintain competitive balance.
The most radical change would be to increase the number of playoff teams in each conference to eight, the four division champions and four wild card teams.
With the extra bye week in the regular season schedule, the first-round bye for the top two teams in each conference would be eliminated. No other major professional sport offers byes in the first round of the playoffs, so why should the NFL?
This would create an additional four games in the Wild Card round, improving revenue for these four playoff teams as well as the entire league through added television revenue.
The top team in each conference would still earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the teams would be reseeded for the Divisional round (the best team in the conference would play the worst remaining team).
For good measure, the league could even address the criticism of the current system by no longer promising a home game to each division winner. The four teams with the best records in each conference would play home games in the first round of the postseason. Division winners would only be guaranteed a spot in the postseason, thus creating more incentive for teams having already clinched a weak division to continue competing for one of the top four seeds.
When considering this plan, the league would simply have to examine the lost revenue of 16 total preseason games against the potential revenue gained from an extra week of nationally-televised games, four more playoff games, and the flexibility to schedule more international and neutral-site games.
On top of that, the owners would not have to fight the union over the contractual issues created by increasing the number of games in the regular season schedule.
And even though they are not top priorities, it would actually be a fundamental step in protecting the health of players by adding an extra bye to the schedule while also preserving the game’s modern history.
Will it happen? Probably not, but it’s something to ponder before making radical changes to the fabric of the National Football League.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Surviving the 2009 Orioles
Depending on how you look at the current state of the Baltimore Orioles, two vastly different conclusions come to mind.
On one hand, the Orioles’ minor league system is in better shape than it has been in over 20 years, consistently ranking in the top 10 according to various publications.
Along with catching sensation Matt Wieters, who is expected to be promoted to the big leagues in the early weeks of the 2009 season, the Orioles boast three of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
Brian Matusz (2008 first-round pick), Jake Arrieta (2007 fifth-round pick), and Chris Tillman (acquired from the Seattle Mariners in last winter’s Erik Bedard trade) provide a rock-solid foundation upon which the Orioles hope to rebuild their woeful pitching of the past decade.
In addition to these three, other top pitching prospects include Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton, Chorye Spoone, and Troy Patton.
Unlike past pitching prospects such as Rocky Coppinger, Sidney Ponson, and Adam Loewen, no single prospect needs to be viewed as the supreme savior for the organization, but all will instead be developed methodically, mastering each level of the minors before being promoted. The Orioles hope this depth will pay dividends in the near future.
General manager Andy MacPhail has continuously preached patience with the organization’s talented, but inexperienced, pitchers.
But from the other perspective, the thought of patience seems unbearable, if not impossible, to the many Orioles fans that have suffered through 11-straight losing seasons in the American League East. To them, the rebuilding has continued far too long.
“It’s time to win now—not in 2011,” they insist.
But sadly, they see a rotation that will only contend to be the worst rotation in 56 seasons of Orioles baseball, much less compete against the Yankees and Red Sox.
Beyond ace Jeremy Guthrie, the rotation overflows with question marks. Newcomer Koji Uehara was a star in Japan, but no one knows what to expect when the right-hander begins competing against the fierce lineups of the AL East.
Lefthander Rich Hill, acquired from the Chicago Cubs, hopes to regain his 2007 form in which he won 11 games and pitched to a 3.92 ERA, but has missed much of spring training with a sore elbow.
Though there is hope for these three to somehow keep the starting rotation afloat, the laundry list of candidates to fill out the final spots of the rotation includes veterans Mark Hendrickson, Danys Baez, and Adam Eaton and unproven young pitchers Brian Bass, Hayden Penn, and Alfredo Simon.
Yikes.
Clearly, the Orioles will not contend in the toughest division in baseball. The starting pitching will be too ineffective, and the improved offense and bullpen will not be able to overcome this deficiency.
So, the question begs to be asked: what should Orioles fans reasonably expect in 2009?
Those hoping and praying for a pennant race will inevitably be disappointed while those choosing to focus on the deficiencies of a rebuilding team and asking why the team is not trying to win this season will undoubtedly look past any bright spots concerning developing players such as Felix Pie and Adam Jones.
For Orioles fans bracing themselves for a 12th-straight year of losing baseball, the truth may hurt. The reality is the last 11 years of losing mean very little to the present state of the club. MacPhail was president of the Chicago Cubs while manager Dave Trembley was managing in the Cubs’ minor league system when this period of losing began in 1998.
Despite how infuriated Orioles fans have become over the decline of a once-proud franchise, these men cannot and should not concern themselves with the mistakes of their ineffective predecessors.
Fans have every right to criticize owner Peter Angelos, the one constant throughout the past 11 seasons of losing baseball. His annual late-season proclamations of grandeur for the following year are just a small sample of the empty promises given by the organization during his ownership.
Orioles’ loyalists deserve to be angry and have expressed their displeasure in recent years, ranging from a fan protest in 2006 to the drastic decline in attendance from 3.7 million in 1997 (the club’s last winning season) to just under two million fans in 2008.
Despite this anger and intense yearning for a winning team, many fans’ cry for a quick fix by signing a couple veteran pitchers is the wrong wish and is the exact thinking that has plagued the organization over the past decade.
For the first time throughout this eleven-year nightmare, the Orioles finally get it. They have finally committed to rebuilding after so many half-hearted, feeble attempts.
This organization should be playing for 2011—not making shortsighted moves for the false hope of competing in 2009.
Fans need to view the organization like that friend that has been driving around that beat-up car for years. Yeah, he tried to make the quick fixes and even used a bit of duct tape, but it never ran well. After years of denial, he finally conceded that it’s time to start over completely, because there’s just no salvaging it.
But, the question remains, does your friend look for that instant gratification and buy a used car with 85,000 miles on it, or drive the junker for just a little longer and save for something brand new?
Sure, that used car may look shiny and new after going through the carwash, but there’s no telling whether it’s going to run well for a few years or be a total lemon.
Investing in veteran pitchers and overpriced free agents would make the current Orioles a team that could approach .500 and maybe contend for a wild card if everything went absolutely perfectly.
But then what happens when these players break down and you’ve already committed millions of dollars to them? The young arms could potentially be ready, but there is no payroll flexibility to add that slugging first baseman or shortstop—not to mention you’re left with the predicament of dumping these veteran starters to create room for the younger pitchers.
Instead, MacPhail is making the right decision by saving the club’s money, enduring another season or two of misery while building that muscle car that can compete with any in the AL East.
The Orioles are saving, waiting for the young pitchers to develop, and then, when the time is right, they’ll spring for the bigger pieces to fill out the roster in free agency.
The plan is the right one, but will it succeed? No one can know for sure, especially in this division. And if the Orioles fail, the criticism will again be justified.
There is no guarantee with pitching prospects, as the Orioles have painfully learned over the last 11 years, but with the vast supply of promising talent, the odds are more favorable this time than any other in the past decade.
Fans may continue to gripe—surely, they have every right to complain until the Orioles retake their place among the game’s respected franchises—but this time, the Orioles are getting it right.
For fans doubting the approach of the franchise, they need only look back in its rich history.
Until the early-1960s, the Orioles struggled to avoid the “second division” of the American League. However, through the construction of a talented farm system based around pitching and defense, the club improved to the point of winning over 90 games in 1964 and 1965.
In December 1965, the Orioles finally knew they were one player away from a championship and sent pitcher Milt Pappas and two others to the Cincinnati Reds for a veteran right fielder named Frank Robinson, the dominant hitter that could put Baltimore over the top.
The rest was history, as the Orioles then embarked on one of the most successful 20-year stretches of any franchise in baseball history.
Obviously, the game is much different today with the high stakes of free agency, but the basic philosophy remains in MacPhail’s mind.
The current Orioles are building for something special, something long-lasting. And when the youthful pieces are in place, they’ll seek out another Frank Robinson to put them over the top.
But it’s going to take a little more patience.
Eleven years is a long time, no question. But hopefully, that excruciating wait will soon be worth it for Orioles fans.
On one hand, the Orioles’ minor league system is in better shape than it has been in over 20 years, consistently ranking in the top 10 according to various publications.
Along with catching sensation Matt Wieters, who is expected to be promoted to the big leagues in the early weeks of the 2009 season, the Orioles boast three of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.
Brian Matusz (2008 first-round pick), Jake Arrieta (2007 fifth-round pick), and Chris Tillman (acquired from the Seattle Mariners in last winter’s Erik Bedard trade) provide a rock-solid foundation upon which the Orioles hope to rebuild their woeful pitching of the past decade.
In addition to these three, other top pitching prospects include Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Brandon Erbe, Zach Britton, Chorye Spoone, and Troy Patton.
Unlike past pitching prospects such as Rocky Coppinger, Sidney Ponson, and Adam Loewen, no single prospect needs to be viewed as the supreme savior for the organization, but all will instead be developed methodically, mastering each level of the minors before being promoted. The Orioles hope this depth will pay dividends in the near future.
General manager Andy MacPhail has continuously preached patience with the organization’s talented, but inexperienced, pitchers.
But from the other perspective, the thought of patience seems unbearable, if not impossible, to the many Orioles fans that have suffered through 11-straight losing seasons in the American League East. To them, the rebuilding has continued far too long.
“It’s time to win now—not in 2011,” they insist.
But sadly, they see a rotation that will only contend to be the worst rotation in 56 seasons of Orioles baseball, much less compete against the Yankees and Red Sox.
Beyond ace Jeremy Guthrie, the rotation overflows with question marks. Newcomer Koji Uehara was a star in Japan, but no one knows what to expect when the right-hander begins competing against the fierce lineups of the AL East.
Lefthander Rich Hill, acquired from the Chicago Cubs, hopes to regain his 2007 form in which he won 11 games and pitched to a 3.92 ERA, but has missed much of spring training with a sore elbow.
Though there is hope for these three to somehow keep the starting rotation afloat, the laundry list of candidates to fill out the final spots of the rotation includes veterans Mark Hendrickson, Danys Baez, and Adam Eaton and unproven young pitchers Brian Bass, Hayden Penn, and Alfredo Simon.
Yikes.
Clearly, the Orioles will not contend in the toughest division in baseball. The starting pitching will be too ineffective, and the improved offense and bullpen will not be able to overcome this deficiency.
So, the question begs to be asked: what should Orioles fans reasonably expect in 2009?
Those hoping and praying for a pennant race will inevitably be disappointed while those choosing to focus on the deficiencies of a rebuilding team and asking why the team is not trying to win this season will undoubtedly look past any bright spots concerning developing players such as Felix Pie and Adam Jones.
For Orioles fans bracing themselves for a 12th-straight year of losing baseball, the truth may hurt. The reality is the last 11 years of losing mean very little to the present state of the club. MacPhail was president of the Chicago Cubs while manager Dave Trembley was managing in the Cubs’ minor league system when this period of losing began in 1998.
Despite how infuriated Orioles fans have become over the decline of a once-proud franchise, these men cannot and should not concern themselves with the mistakes of their ineffective predecessors.
Fans have every right to criticize owner Peter Angelos, the one constant throughout the past 11 seasons of losing baseball. His annual late-season proclamations of grandeur for the following year are just a small sample of the empty promises given by the organization during his ownership.
Orioles’ loyalists deserve to be angry and have expressed their displeasure in recent years, ranging from a fan protest in 2006 to the drastic decline in attendance from 3.7 million in 1997 (the club’s last winning season) to just under two million fans in 2008.
Despite this anger and intense yearning for a winning team, many fans’ cry for a quick fix by signing a couple veteran pitchers is the wrong wish and is the exact thinking that has plagued the organization over the past decade.
For the first time throughout this eleven-year nightmare, the Orioles finally get it. They have finally committed to rebuilding after so many half-hearted, feeble attempts.
This organization should be playing for 2011—not making shortsighted moves for the false hope of competing in 2009.
Fans need to view the organization like that friend that has been driving around that beat-up car for years. Yeah, he tried to make the quick fixes and even used a bit of duct tape, but it never ran well. After years of denial, he finally conceded that it’s time to start over completely, because there’s just no salvaging it.
But, the question remains, does your friend look for that instant gratification and buy a used car with 85,000 miles on it, or drive the junker for just a little longer and save for something brand new?
Sure, that used car may look shiny and new after going through the carwash, but there’s no telling whether it’s going to run well for a few years or be a total lemon.
Investing in veteran pitchers and overpriced free agents would make the current Orioles a team that could approach .500 and maybe contend for a wild card if everything went absolutely perfectly.
But then what happens when these players break down and you’ve already committed millions of dollars to them? The young arms could potentially be ready, but there is no payroll flexibility to add that slugging first baseman or shortstop—not to mention you’re left with the predicament of dumping these veteran starters to create room for the younger pitchers.
Instead, MacPhail is making the right decision by saving the club’s money, enduring another season or two of misery while building that muscle car that can compete with any in the AL East.
The Orioles are saving, waiting for the young pitchers to develop, and then, when the time is right, they’ll spring for the bigger pieces to fill out the roster in free agency.
The plan is the right one, but will it succeed? No one can know for sure, especially in this division. And if the Orioles fail, the criticism will again be justified.
There is no guarantee with pitching prospects, as the Orioles have painfully learned over the last 11 years, but with the vast supply of promising talent, the odds are more favorable this time than any other in the past decade.
Fans may continue to gripe—surely, they have every right to complain until the Orioles retake their place among the game’s respected franchises—but this time, the Orioles are getting it right.
For fans doubting the approach of the franchise, they need only look back in its rich history.
Until the early-1960s, the Orioles struggled to avoid the “second division” of the American League. However, through the construction of a talented farm system based around pitching and defense, the club improved to the point of winning over 90 games in 1964 and 1965.
In December 1965, the Orioles finally knew they were one player away from a championship and sent pitcher Milt Pappas and two others to the Cincinnati Reds for a veteran right fielder named Frank Robinson, the dominant hitter that could put Baltimore over the top.
The rest was history, as the Orioles then embarked on one of the most successful 20-year stretches of any franchise in baseball history.
Obviously, the game is much different today with the high stakes of free agency, but the basic philosophy remains in MacPhail’s mind.
The current Orioles are building for something special, something long-lasting. And when the youthful pieces are in place, they’ll seek out another Frank Robinson to put them over the top.
But it’s going to take a little more patience.
Eleven years is a long time, no question. But hopefully, that excruciating wait will soon be worth it for Orioles fans.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Cringing at the Orioles' Starting Rotation
The vast improvement of the Baltimore Orioles’ minor league system brings much hope for an organization trying to break a string of 11-straight losing seasons and return to contention in the cutthroat American League East.
However, two decisions made over the weekend signal a harsh reality of the present, and the need for more patience as the organization waits for its bumper crop of starting pitching to mature in the minor leagues.
The Orioles optioned pitcher Brad Bergesen to Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday despite the young right-hander being one of the biggest surprises of spring training.
Bergesen pitched 11 2/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA and 11 strikeouts, launching himself into consideration for a starting rotation spot before being demoted.
President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail has been assertive in stating the club’s approach in taking its time to promote their young pitchers, wanting them to gain experience at each level before being promoted to Baltimore.
This certainly makes sense, considering Bergesen has never pitched above Double-A Bowie. Manager Dave Trembley wants the young pitcher to improve his changeup and his ability to retire left-handed hitters before making his debut in Baltimore.
Trembley told reporters that Bergesen would be one of the top candidates for a promotion in the early stages of the season.
While the decision to option Bergesen is disappointing to those wanting to see the Orioles’ core of promising pitchers, it makes sense considering other young pitchers such as Hayden Penn and Brian Bass are out of options and would have to pass through waivers before being sent to Norfolk.
The Orioles are not playing for 2009, so it makes little sense to rush any of their top pitching prospects, especially when you have these young placeholders at the major league level that could improve their value for potential trades in the future.
This would be a logical plan, but another decision made by Trembley over the weekend raises more concern about the present state of the club.
Still vying for a spot in the starting rotation, Penn was scheduled to start on Sunday before rain postponed Saturday’s game. Instead of skipping veteran Mark Hendrickson’s scheduled Saturday start, Trembley started Hendrickson and bumped Penn into a relief role in which he pitched only two innings.
While the oft-injured Penn, 24, has lost the top-prospect status he enjoyed a few seasons ago, the club needs to give him and fellow young pitcher Brian Bass every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation.
Skipping Penn for a veteran swingman like Hendrickson fails to provide that opportunity and does nothing for the club’s future.
Penn may not be a long-term solution in the starting rotation, but certainly provides more upside than veterans Adam Eaton and Danys Baez. The veterans have started a combined six games compared to none for Penn. Trembley has given Bass two starts this spring.
Eaton and Baez may provide the veteran presence Trembley likes on his club, but they do not provide a productive presence.
Eaton has failed to post an ERA below 5.00 since 2005 and was released by the Phillies before signing a minor league contract with the Orioles. Baez is returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008 and posted a 6.44 ERA for the Orioles in 2007.
Why are these ineffective veterans receiving more opportunities than Penn? A veteran does little for a staff if he is being annihilated every five days.
If the Orioles need a reminder of how letting a former top prospect go before giving him a fair opportunity can backfire, they only need to look at John Maine, who after making eight starts in Baltimore in 2005, was traded to the Mets for Kris Benson. Maine won 15 games in 2007 and 10 in 2008 for New York.
How many wins did Kris Benson have with the Orioles again? Eleven? But he was a strong veteran presence, right?
Penn and Bass are relative unknowns at the major league level, but they do not have to perform at a high level to match what Eaton and Baez would contribute to the club, and could easily exceed the veterans’ projected performance.
The Orioles need to move away from this obsession with ineffective veteran pitchers at the expense of giving opportunities to younger pitchers.
While Penn and Bass are unlikely to stick beyond the next season or two, they certainly have a higher ceiling than veteran retreads with no trade value.
If Penn or Bass can perform better than expected, it would be a nice problem to have when the next group of young pitchers is ready for the major leagues. If they do not perform, you simply unload them and find another Baez or Eaton on the waiver wire.
Regardless of which five pitchers make the Opening Day rotation, the results will not be pretty. After ace Jeremy Guthrie, who would be a middle-of-the-rotation arm for a contending club, the Orioles will send out four unproven, if not ineffective, starters against the likes of the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees.
Though Koji Uehara created much excitement in spring training before going down with a hamstring injury, it is difficult to project how well the Japanese pitcher will perform against major league hitters. His lack of spring training innings further clouds the situation.
The team will receive another potential boost when lefty Rich Hill returns from injury and enters the rotation later in April. Pitching coach Rich Kranitz is trying to fix the former Cubs pitcher’s woes in hopes that he can return to his 2007 form.
Beyond these three, the best bet for tolerating the club’s starting rotation in the first half of 2009 is to close your eyes and think about August, when several of the organization’s young pitchers are projected to be ready for promotions.
The first wave could bring Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even two of the organization’s “Big Three," Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman.
Starting then, the Orioles will be able to move away from ineffective veterans and out-of-option projects and focus on developing a top-notch staff to compete in the AL East.
But until that happens, whether it’s young placeholders such as Penn and Bass, or veteran outcasts like Baez and Eaton, it figures to be a long couple of months in Baltimore.
However, two decisions made over the weekend signal a harsh reality of the present, and the need for more patience as the organization waits for its bumper crop of starting pitching to mature in the minor leagues.
The Orioles optioned pitcher Brad Bergesen to Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday despite the young right-hander being one of the biggest surprises of spring training.
Bergesen pitched 11 2/3 innings with a 3.09 ERA and 11 strikeouts, launching himself into consideration for a starting rotation spot before being demoted.
President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail has been assertive in stating the club’s approach in taking its time to promote their young pitchers, wanting them to gain experience at each level before being promoted to Baltimore.
This certainly makes sense, considering Bergesen has never pitched above Double-A Bowie. Manager Dave Trembley wants the young pitcher to improve his changeup and his ability to retire left-handed hitters before making his debut in Baltimore.
Trembley told reporters that Bergesen would be one of the top candidates for a promotion in the early stages of the season.
While the decision to option Bergesen is disappointing to those wanting to see the Orioles’ core of promising pitchers, it makes sense considering other young pitchers such as Hayden Penn and Brian Bass are out of options and would have to pass through waivers before being sent to Norfolk.
The Orioles are not playing for 2009, so it makes little sense to rush any of their top pitching prospects, especially when you have these young placeholders at the major league level that could improve their value for potential trades in the future.
This would be a logical plan, but another decision made by Trembley over the weekend raises more concern about the present state of the club.
Still vying for a spot in the starting rotation, Penn was scheduled to start on Sunday before rain postponed Saturday’s game. Instead of skipping veteran Mark Hendrickson’s scheduled Saturday start, Trembley started Hendrickson and bumped Penn into a relief role in which he pitched only two innings.
While the oft-injured Penn, 24, has lost the top-prospect status he enjoyed a few seasons ago, the club needs to give him and fellow young pitcher Brian Bass every opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation.
Skipping Penn for a veteran swingman like Hendrickson fails to provide that opportunity and does nothing for the club’s future.
Penn may not be a long-term solution in the starting rotation, but certainly provides more upside than veterans Adam Eaton and Danys Baez. The veterans have started a combined six games compared to none for Penn. Trembley has given Bass two starts this spring.
Eaton and Baez may provide the veteran presence Trembley likes on his club, but they do not provide a productive presence.
Eaton has failed to post an ERA below 5.00 since 2005 and was released by the Phillies before signing a minor league contract with the Orioles. Baez is returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008 and posted a 6.44 ERA for the Orioles in 2007.
Why are these ineffective veterans receiving more opportunities than Penn? A veteran does little for a staff if he is being annihilated every five days.
If the Orioles need a reminder of how letting a former top prospect go before giving him a fair opportunity can backfire, they only need to look at John Maine, who after making eight starts in Baltimore in 2005, was traded to the Mets for Kris Benson. Maine won 15 games in 2007 and 10 in 2008 for New York.
How many wins did Kris Benson have with the Orioles again? Eleven? But he was a strong veteran presence, right?
Penn and Bass are relative unknowns at the major league level, but they do not have to perform at a high level to match what Eaton and Baez would contribute to the club, and could easily exceed the veterans’ projected performance.
The Orioles need to move away from this obsession with ineffective veteran pitchers at the expense of giving opportunities to younger pitchers.
While Penn and Bass are unlikely to stick beyond the next season or two, they certainly have a higher ceiling than veteran retreads with no trade value.
If Penn or Bass can perform better than expected, it would be a nice problem to have when the next group of young pitchers is ready for the major leagues. If they do not perform, you simply unload them and find another Baez or Eaton on the waiver wire.
Regardless of which five pitchers make the Opening Day rotation, the results will not be pretty. After ace Jeremy Guthrie, who would be a middle-of-the-rotation arm for a contending club, the Orioles will send out four unproven, if not ineffective, starters against the likes of the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees.
Though Koji Uehara created much excitement in spring training before going down with a hamstring injury, it is difficult to project how well the Japanese pitcher will perform against major league hitters. His lack of spring training innings further clouds the situation.
The team will receive another potential boost when lefty Rich Hill returns from injury and enters the rotation later in April. Pitching coach Rich Kranitz is trying to fix the former Cubs pitcher’s woes in hopes that he can return to his 2007 form.
Beyond these three, the best bet for tolerating the club’s starting rotation in the first half of 2009 is to close your eyes and think about August, when several of the organization’s young pitchers are projected to be ready for promotions.
The first wave could bring Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even two of the organization’s “Big Three," Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman.
Starting then, the Orioles will be able to move away from ineffective veterans and out-of-option projects and focus on developing a top-notch staff to compete in the AL East.
But until that happens, whether it’s young placeholders such as Penn and Bass, or veteran outcasts like Baez and Eaton, it figures to be a long couple of months in Baltimore.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Terps-Cal Preview: Looking into the Mirror
Maryland returns to the NCAA tournament for only the second time in the last five seasons on Thursday afternoon.
The No. 10-seed Terrapins (20-13) face the No. 7-seed California Golden Bears (22-10) in an ACC-Pacific-10 showdown in the first round.
The Terps earned an at-large bid after beating North Carolina State and Wake Forest in the ACC tournament while the Golden Bears finished in a third-place tie with Arizona State in the Pac-10.
Both Maryland and Cal rely on strong play from their guards and lack any consistent threats in the frontcourt.
The Terps rely on pressure and penetration from its guards to create offense while coach Mike Montgomery’s Golden Bears lead the nation in three-point shooting, making 43.4 percent of its attempts.
Cal’s three-point shooting is more selective than other long-distance shooting teams like Duke that take over 700 attempts in a season. The Golden Bears took only 468 three-point attempts, 106 fewer than Maryland.
Maryland likes to occasionally switch between man-to-man defense and a 3-2 zone to compensate for its lack of size, but the Golden Bears’ long-range shooting may prevent coach Gary Williams from using this strategy. Cal’s junior guard and leading scorer Jerome Randle makes 46.8 percent of his three-pointers, third overall in the nation.
Guarding the three-pointer is a glaring weakness for the Terps, ranking 225th in the nation and allowing opponents to shoot 35.1 percent from behind the three-point line. If Randle and forward Theo Robertson begin draining long-range shots, the Terps will be in serious trouble.
To advance to the second round, Maryland will need to guard Cal’s shooters closely and refrain from gambling for steals, a trap the Terps often fall into, leaving opportunities for wide-open shooters. Cal’s half-court offense will take advantage if Maryland takes too many chances defensively.
Junior guard Greivis Vasquez leads Maryland in scoring, rebounding, and assists, but reserve guard Eric Hayes has recently become a reliable scoring threat for the Terps. If Cal begins shooting from beyond the arc, Hayes’ long-range shooting will be needed to keep the Terrapins in the game.
Hayes, averaging 10.1 points per game, has sparked the Terps in the postseason, scoring a career-high 21 points against N.C. State in the first round of the conference tournament and 20 against Duke in the semifinal loss.
Another key for the Terps could be the shooting of forward Dave Neal. The 6-7 forward hits 38.9 percent from the three-point line, strong enough to lure a bigger defender away from the paint to contest his shot. This could free up the inside for Vasquez and guard Adrian Bowie to drive to the hoop and get to the foul line.
If the game comes down to foul shooting, the two teams figure to be evenly matched. Maryland shoots 76.8 percent from the line while Cal makes 75.6 percent of its free throws.
This is a tough one to predict given the similarities between the two. While their guards have different strengths, each team lives and dies with the play of its backcourt players. Both teams lack a consistent big man, so the inside game does not figure to play a major factor in the game.
It appears Maryland might be catching Cal at the right time. The Golden Bears have lost four of their last six games while the Terps recovered from a crucial road loss at Virginia in the regular season finale before making their run in the ACC tournament to regain favor in the eyes of the selection committee.
If the Golden Bears’ long-distance shooting comes out hot, the Terps will need Hayes and Vasquez to counter to keep them in the game.
Look for Maryland’s pressure and trapping defense to keep Cal off-balanced and prevent their shooters from getting open looks consistently.
Vasquez is the emotional leader of the Terps and is fully capable of taking over the game if he comes out strong.
Gary Williams has not lost a first round game in the NCAA tournament since 1997. The streak continues as the Terrapins move on to the second round to face the powerhouse Memphis Tigers.
The pick: Maryland 72, California 66
The No. 10-seed Terrapins (20-13) face the No. 7-seed California Golden Bears (22-10) in an ACC-Pacific-10 showdown in the first round.
The Terps earned an at-large bid after beating North Carolina State and Wake Forest in the ACC tournament while the Golden Bears finished in a third-place tie with Arizona State in the Pac-10.
Both Maryland and Cal rely on strong play from their guards and lack any consistent threats in the frontcourt.
The Terps rely on pressure and penetration from its guards to create offense while coach Mike Montgomery’s Golden Bears lead the nation in three-point shooting, making 43.4 percent of its attempts.
Cal’s three-point shooting is more selective than other long-distance shooting teams like Duke that take over 700 attempts in a season. The Golden Bears took only 468 three-point attempts, 106 fewer than Maryland.
Maryland likes to occasionally switch between man-to-man defense and a 3-2 zone to compensate for its lack of size, but the Golden Bears’ long-range shooting may prevent coach Gary Williams from using this strategy. Cal’s junior guard and leading scorer Jerome Randle makes 46.8 percent of his three-pointers, third overall in the nation.
Guarding the three-pointer is a glaring weakness for the Terps, ranking 225th in the nation and allowing opponents to shoot 35.1 percent from behind the three-point line. If Randle and forward Theo Robertson begin draining long-range shots, the Terps will be in serious trouble.
To advance to the second round, Maryland will need to guard Cal’s shooters closely and refrain from gambling for steals, a trap the Terps often fall into, leaving opportunities for wide-open shooters. Cal’s half-court offense will take advantage if Maryland takes too many chances defensively.
Junior guard Greivis Vasquez leads Maryland in scoring, rebounding, and assists, but reserve guard Eric Hayes has recently become a reliable scoring threat for the Terps. If Cal begins shooting from beyond the arc, Hayes’ long-range shooting will be needed to keep the Terrapins in the game.
Hayes, averaging 10.1 points per game, has sparked the Terps in the postseason, scoring a career-high 21 points against N.C. State in the first round of the conference tournament and 20 against Duke in the semifinal loss.
Another key for the Terps could be the shooting of forward Dave Neal. The 6-7 forward hits 38.9 percent from the three-point line, strong enough to lure a bigger defender away from the paint to contest his shot. This could free up the inside for Vasquez and guard Adrian Bowie to drive to the hoop and get to the foul line.
If the game comes down to foul shooting, the two teams figure to be evenly matched. Maryland shoots 76.8 percent from the line while Cal makes 75.6 percent of its free throws.
This is a tough one to predict given the similarities between the two. While their guards have different strengths, each team lives and dies with the play of its backcourt players. Both teams lack a consistent big man, so the inside game does not figure to play a major factor in the game.
It appears Maryland might be catching Cal at the right time. The Golden Bears have lost four of their last six games while the Terps recovered from a crucial road loss at Virginia in the regular season finale before making their run in the ACC tournament to regain favor in the eyes of the selection committee.
If the Golden Bears’ long-distance shooting comes out hot, the Terps will need Hayes and Vasquez to counter to keep them in the game.
Look for Maryland’s pressure and trapping defense to keep Cal off-balanced and prevent their shooters from getting open looks consistently.
Vasquez is the emotional leader of the Terps and is fully capable of taking over the game if he comes out strong.
Gary Williams has not lost a first round game in the NCAA tournament since 1997. The streak continues as the Terrapins move on to the second round to face the powerhouse Memphis Tigers.
The pick: Maryland 72, California 66
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
March Madness: Nobody Knows What They're Talking About
As sports fans throughout the country polish up their tournament brackets in anticipation for Thursday, I began to think about this ritual that accompanies March Madness.
It’s remarkable how a simple bracket printed on a piece of paper motivates us to try to become the next Andy Katz or Digger Phelps.
We analyze, dissect, study, and agonize over who will be the next surprise, the next disappointment, and ultimately, the next champion of the NCAA tournament.
We read a few articles published on some of the popular websites or watch an hour-long special on ESPN and suddenly claim to be an expert on the field of 65. All of our friends must listen to us explain why VCU is going to defeat UCLA or how Boston College will fall to the red-hot Trojans from USC.
The discussion over office pools and banter between college buddies is ubiquitous.
And you know what? Nobody knows what they’re talking about. Not even a little bit.
No one.
And that’s what makes the magic of the NCAA tournament. The unknown is what draws us to this unique sporting event.
I love college basketball, and I’m comfortable in saying I know a good deal about the sport.
For instance, I know that Jim Boeheim and Syracuse are returning to the tournament after a two-year absence. However, I’ll also admit to knowing more about Stone Cold Steve Austin than I do about Syracuse’s first-round opponent Stephen F. Austin.
I also wonder about the status of Ty Lawson and how it affects North Carolina’s title hopes, but I also wonder about Cornell. Yes, it’s an Ivy League school, and I know that Andy Bernard of The Office attended Cornell, but I couldn’t even pretend to tell you who their leading scorer is.
Northern Iowa? Oh, that’s easy. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner played there, but who’s their top rebounder? Next question, please.
Meanwhile, I’m still trying to remember who Robert Morris even was, let alone who the school’s head coach is.
It isn’t what we know that makes this sporting event so enjoyable, but it’s what we don’t know.
In any other sport, we know all of the teams and competitors. In the NFL or NBA playoffs, the teams are all familiar and most of the key contributors are easily recognizable.
We know the big names of college basketball. We’re familiar with the Connecticuts and Michigan States of the bracket, but for the many household names printed on that piece of paper, we find many that are foreign.
It’s a mystery where several of these schools are even located, so why would we know what to expect when they take the floor on Thursday or Friday?
Most of these unknowns will return to obscurity after their two hours of fame, but every now and then, one of these strangers, a Valparaiso, a Davidson, or a George Mason, surprises us all, and we get to know them.
Instead of simply being that new kid standing on the sideline, waiting for his chance to play but bolting when he can’t hang with the big kids, they steal the show and upstage one of the neighborhood legends.
They become more than just the champion of their mid-major conference somewhere in the Midwest. No longer is it just a funny name or a set of initials we don’t recognize.
We yearn to know who that Cinderella is going to be, so we can take credit for saying it would happen all along. It would make us a god among friends, or even a champion of the office pool.
In that quest, we turn to the experts on television. Surely, Jay Bilas can tell us about Binghamton’s best player and provide some good information from a detailed stat sheet, but answer this question:
Do you honestly think Jay Bilas has seen the Bearcats play more than once or twice all season, or even at all?
The truth is the experts that work countless hours and are truly outstanding at what they do don’t really know what they’re talking about either. There simply aren’t enough hours in the day to really break it down in any kind of precise way. The variables to consider in picking these games are too many to count.
When it comes to picking the upsets and the Cinderella stories, your guess is as good as anyone’s.
So, what does this all mean?
Don’t worry about trying to be so analytical just to impress your friends.
When completing your bracket, simply close your eyes and go with your gut. Avoiding any urge to pick a No. 16 seed would also help.
Just use your imagination.
Listen closely and you might be able to hear Gus Johnson screaming during the final seconds of Dayton’s thrilling upset win over West Virginia.
Close your eyes and you might envision Bob Knight’s breakdown of why Western Kentucky knocked off Illinois on Thursday night’s Sportscenter.
Is it only a crazy dream, or can it become reality?
Nobody knows, but we are all so very eager to find out.
Oh, and by the way, would you like to hear my picks for the tournament?
It’s remarkable how a simple bracket printed on a piece of paper motivates us to try to become the next Andy Katz or Digger Phelps.
We analyze, dissect, study, and agonize over who will be the next surprise, the next disappointment, and ultimately, the next champion of the NCAA tournament.
We read a few articles published on some of the popular websites or watch an hour-long special on ESPN and suddenly claim to be an expert on the field of 65. All of our friends must listen to us explain why VCU is going to defeat UCLA or how Boston College will fall to the red-hot Trojans from USC.
The discussion over office pools and banter between college buddies is ubiquitous.
And you know what? Nobody knows what they’re talking about. Not even a little bit.
No one.
And that’s what makes the magic of the NCAA tournament. The unknown is what draws us to this unique sporting event.
I love college basketball, and I’m comfortable in saying I know a good deal about the sport.
For instance, I know that Jim Boeheim and Syracuse are returning to the tournament after a two-year absence. However, I’ll also admit to knowing more about Stone Cold Steve Austin than I do about Syracuse’s first-round opponent Stephen F. Austin.
I also wonder about the status of Ty Lawson and how it affects North Carolina’s title hopes, but I also wonder about Cornell. Yes, it’s an Ivy League school, and I know that Andy Bernard of The Office attended Cornell, but I couldn’t even pretend to tell you who their leading scorer is.
Northern Iowa? Oh, that’s easy. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner played there, but who’s their top rebounder? Next question, please.
Meanwhile, I’m still trying to remember who Robert Morris even was, let alone who the school’s head coach is.
It isn’t what we know that makes this sporting event so enjoyable, but it’s what we don’t know.
In any other sport, we know all of the teams and competitors. In the NFL or NBA playoffs, the teams are all familiar and most of the key contributors are easily recognizable.
We know the big names of college basketball. We’re familiar with the Connecticuts and Michigan States of the bracket, but for the many household names printed on that piece of paper, we find many that are foreign.
It’s a mystery where several of these schools are even located, so why would we know what to expect when they take the floor on Thursday or Friday?
Most of these unknowns will return to obscurity after their two hours of fame, but every now and then, one of these strangers, a Valparaiso, a Davidson, or a George Mason, surprises us all, and we get to know them.
Instead of simply being that new kid standing on the sideline, waiting for his chance to play but bolting when he can’t hang with the big kids, they steal the show and upstage one of the neighborhood legends.
They become more than just the champion of their mid-major conference somewhere in the Midwest. No longer is it just a funny name or a set of initials we don’t recognize.
We yearn to know who that Cinderella is going to be, so we can take credit for saying it would happen all along. It would make us a god among friends, or even a champion of the office pool.
In that quest, we turn to the experts on television. Surely, Jay Bilas can tell us about Binghamton’s best player and provide some good information from a detailed stat sheet, but answer this question:
Do you honestly think Jay Bilas has seen the Bearcats play more than once or twice all season, or even at all?
The truth is the experts that work countless hours and are truly outstanding at what they do don’t really know what they’re talking about either. There simply aren’t enough hours in the day to really break it down in any kind of precise way. The variables to consider in picking these games are too many to count.
When it comes to picking the upsets and the Cinderella stories, your guess is as good as anyone’s.
So, what does this all mean?
Don’t worry about trying to be so analytical just to impress your friends.
When completing your bracket, simply close your eyes and go with your gut. Avoiding any urge to pick a No. 16 seed would also help.
Just use your imagination.
Listen closely and you might be able to hear Gus Johnson screaming during the final seconds of Dayton’s thrilling upset win over West Virginia.
Close your eyes and you might envision Bob Knight’s breakdown of why Western Kentucky knocked off Illinois on Thursday night’s Sportscenter.
Is it only a crazy dream, or can it become reality?
Nobody knows, but we are all so very eager to find out.
Oh, and by the way, would you like to hear my picks for the tournament?
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Gary Williams Coaches Scrappy Terps Back into the Dance
As Gary Williams and his Terrapins walked off the floor following the embarrassing 93-64 defeat at Clemson on Feb. 17, their aspirations for a second NCAA tournament appearance in five years appeared to have all but vanished.
Williams was facing intense scrutiny regarding his inability to recruit bigger stars and his disintegrating relationship with athletic director Debbie Yow and the university.
The highly inconsistent Greivis Vasquez was yapping at his own fans and struggling to lead the offense.
The struggles figured only to get worse for the 16-9 Terps as they prepared for home battles against powerhouses North Carolina and Duke. The final two nails in the coffin, right?
Perhaps we needed a refresher. Never count out a Williams-coached team.
The season turned on the next Saturday afternoon as Vasquez’s triple-double led Maryland to shock North Carolina in overtime, giving the Terps new life in their quest for an invitation to the “Big Dance.”
Though there would be a few more loops in this undulating season, including a crucial loss to Virginia in the regular season finale followed by two wins in the ACC tournament to put them back in good standing, the sweaty palms and nail biting paid of Sunday afternoon paid off as Maryland learned they would be the No. 10 seed invited to face California in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Kansas City.
For all of the harsh criticism for Williams and the struggles of his program over the past five seasons, the coach never wavered, insisting this was one of his favorite teams in his noted career.
There’s no question Maryland is undersized and lacks the talent to consistently compete with the top teams in the country. Of the Terps’ starting five, only Greivis Vasquez would start for the top programs in the country.
These doubts regarding recruiting will continue to follow Williams unless incoming freshmen James Padgett and Jordan Williams can provide the impact size the team has sorely lacked this season.
But for all of the critics droning about Maryland failing to make the NCAA tournament consistently, Williams found a way to silence them in what might be his best pure-coaching job since arriving at Maryland 20 years ago.
From the unimpressive, yet effective, Dave Neal to the out-of-position Landon Milbourne holding his own against burly opponents, the Terps never conceded failure, even when they appeared done in mid-February.
The scrappy play of this Maryland team is unlikely to move them beyond the first or second round, but Williams once again proved there should be no doubting his ability to get the absolute best out of his players.
This is the point that Williams needs to sell to potential recruits, whether they’re looking to win a national championship, go to the NBA, or both.
If he can get this underdog roster of players to play its way into the NCAA tournament, just think what he can continue to do with more talent.
The fire is still there in the 64-year-old coach to win another national championship for Maryland. He just needs to recruit the horses.
Who knows? Perhaps Williams can channel the past, and the Terps can defeat Cal and upset No.2-seeded Memphis to advance to the Sweet 16.
Certainly an unlikely proposition, but it was equally unlikely when Joe Smith, Johnny Rhodes, and the Terps knocked off Massachusetts in 1994, putting Maryland basketball back on the map after years in the doldrums following the tragic death of Len Bias.
Oh yeah, Maryland just happened to also be a No. 10 seed that year, and John Calipari was the coach of the Minutemen, the same Calipari coaching the Memphis Tigers in a potential second-round matchup.
It would be hyperbole to compare the magnitude of a potential run in this year’s tournament to those past heroics. The recent struggles do not compare to the state of the program when Williams arrived in College Park in 1989.
However, it might just launch the Terrapins back into elite status in the near future if they can capitalize on the recruiting side.
Crazy? Perhaps.
But, as we’ve learned throughout his brilliant career and again this season, never doubt the heart of Gary Williams and his basketball team.
Williams was facing intense scrutiny regarding his inability to recruit bigger stars and his disintegrating relationship with athletic director Debbie Yow and the university.
The highly inconsistent Greivis Vasquez was yapping at his own fans and struggling to lead the offense.
The struggles figured only to get worse for the 16-9 Terps as they prepared for home battles against powerhouses North Carolina and Duke. The final two nails in the coffin, right?
Perhaps we needed a refresher. Never count out a Williams-coached team.
The season turned on the next Saturday afternoon as Vasquez’s triple-double led Maryland to shock North Carolina in overtime, giving the Terps new life in their quest for an invitation to the “Big Dance.”
Though there would be a few more loops in this undulating season, including a crucial loss to Virginia in the regular season finale followed by two wins in the ACC tournament to put them back in good standing, the sweaty palms and nail biting paid of Sunday afternoon paid off as Maryland learned they would be the No. 10 seed invited to face California in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Kansas City.
For all of the harsh criticism for Williams and the struggles of his program over the past five seasons, the coach never wavered, insisting this was one of his favorite teams in his noted career.
There’s no question Maryland is undersized and lacks the talent to consistently compete with the top teams in the country. Of the Terps’ starting five, only Greivis Vasquez would start for the top programs in the country.
These doubts regarding recruiting will continue to follow Williams unless incoming freshmen James Padgett and Jordan Williams can provide the impact size the team has sorely lacked this season.
But for all of the critics droning about Maryland failing to make the NCAA tournament consistently, Williams found a way to silence them in what might be his best pure-coaching job since arriving at Maryland 20 years ago.
From the unimpressive, yet effective, Dave Neal to the out-of-position Landon Milbourne holding his own against burly opponents, the Terps never conceded failure, even when they appeared done in mid-February.
The scrappy play of this Maryland team is unlikely to move them beyond the first or second round, but Williams once again proved there should be no doubting his ability to get the absolute best out of his players.
This is the point that Williams needs to sell to potential recruits, whether they’re looking to win a national championship, go to the NBA, or both.
If he can get this underdog roster of players to play its way into the NCAA tournament, just think what he can continue to do with more talent.
The fire is still there in the 64-year-old coach to win another national championship for Maryland. He just needs to recruit the horses.
Who knows? Perhaps Williams can channel the past, and the Terps can defeat Cal and upset No.2-seeded Memphis to advance to the Sweet 16.
Certainly an unlikely proposition, but it was equally unlikely when Joe Smith, Johnny Rhodes, and the Terps knocked off Massachusetts in 1994, putting Maryland basketball back on the map after years in the doldrums following the tragic death of Len Bias.
Oh yeah, Maryland just happened to also be a No. 10 seed that year, and John Calipari was the coach of the Minutemen, the same Calipari coaching the Memphis Tigers in a potential second-round matchup.
It would be hyperbole to compare the magnitude of a potential run in this year’s tournament to those past heroics. The recent struggles do not compare to the state of the program when Williams arrived in College Park in 1989.
However, it might just launch the Terrapins back into elite status in the near future if they can capitalize on the recruiting side.
Crazy? Perhaps.
But, as we’ve learned throughout his brilliant career and again this season, never doubt the heart of Gary Williams and his basketball team.
Friday, March 13, 2009
How Syracuse and Connecticut Could Have Avoided 6 OTs
Watching Thursday night's epic six-overtime battle between Syracuse and Connecticut was an astonishing experience for those who persevered well into Friday morning to watch its conclusion.
The gutsy performances displayed by both teams in Syracuse’s 127-117 victory were mind-boggling, as it seemed the clash would never end.
This was never more apparent than when my mother turned to my brother and me at the end of the second overtime and asked, “So, will they play a third overtime?”
Obviously, taken aback by her question (Mom loves sports but admits to occasionally opening her mouth before she thinks), I began thinking about the possibility of the game continuing forever.
Perhaps it was the madness of March seeping into my psyche, or just the exhaustion of being awake past midnight on a work night, but the ideas of how to properly finish this classic encounter began rolling into my mind.
So, if a sleepy Syracuse team fails to advance over West Virginia in the semifinal, perhaps the Big East could have avoided the six-overtime marathon by simply thinking outside of the box:
1. Despite Paul Harris’ 29-point performance, the forward’s numerous misses from point-blank range were tough on the eyes. Perhaps a simple layup contest could have determined the winner? First team to miss loses.
2. The referees lead a ferocious game of Simon Says at center court. Last man standing wins it for his school.
3. Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun look at each other and simply nod, knowing how to settle this. A duel? No, this isn’t the 1700s. The rival coaches play a game of one-on-one to determine who advances. Suit jackets must stay on, no matter what.
4. After four overtimes, dribbling becomes optional. What an interesting dynamic to consider as fatigue continues to grind down both teams. Rugby, anyone?
5. When the third overtime fails to produce a winner, the referees decide to go back and take one more look at Eric Devendorf’s shot at the end of regulation. “On second thought, now that we look at it again, it was good. Let’s go home.”
6. In a fine display of college spirit, the teams agree to a game of beer pong. Only upperclassmen of legal-age are eligible, of course. But alas, the game of 10-cup goes into, you guessed it, overtime.
7. After failing to best one another, the rivals agree to join forces and play the semifinal as the Syrnecticuse Orskies. West Virginia and the rest of the Big East will not stand a chance!
8. When both coaches are informed of the Big East’s 1:00 AM curfew, the players disperse to their respective hotel rooms. The last player on the bench from each school finishes the game: playing Xbox Live.
9. The public address announcer calls for any former players in attendance to proceed to the court for one last moment in the spotlight. In street clothes, Gerry McNamara drains six 3-pointers to seal it for the Orange.
10. And finally, in a moment that will define the history of Big East basketball, the Madison Square Garden crew sets up the arm wrestling table for the final battle to decide who advances and who goes home.
Syracuse and UConn.
A trip to the semifinal on the line.
The two combatants cautiously walk to center court.
Otto the Orange versus Jonathan the Husky.
Best out of three.
March Madness personified.
Justin Jones contributed to this article, and in his mind, actually wrote it.
The gutsy performances displayed by both teams in Syracuse’s 127-117 victory were mind-boggling, as it seemed the clash would never end.
This was never more apparent than when my mother turned to my brother and me at the end of the second overtime and asked, “So, will they play a third overtime?”
Obviously, taken aback by her question (Mom loves sports but admits to occasionally opening her mouth before she thinks), I began thinking about the possibility of the game continuing forever.
Perhaps it was the madness of March seeping into my psyche, or just the exhaustion of being awake past midnight on a work night, but the ideas of how to properly finish this classic encounter began rolling into my mind.
So, if a sleepy Syracuse team fails to advance over West Virginia in the semifinal, perhaps the Big East could have avoided the six-overtime marathon by simply thinking outside of the box:
1. Despite Paul Harris’ 29-point performance, the forward’s numerous misses from point-blank range were tough on the eyes. Perhaps a simple layup contest could have determined the winner? First team to miss loses.
2. The referees lead a ferocious game of Simon Says at center court. Last man standing wins it for his school.
3. Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun look at each other and simply nod, knowing how to settle this. A duel? No, this isn’t the 1700s. The rival coaches play a game of one-on-one to determine who advances. Suit jackets must stay on, no matter what.
4. After four overtimes, dribbling becomes optional. What an interesting dynamic to consider as fatigue continues to grind down both teams. Rugby, anyone?
5. When the third overtime fails to produce a winner, the referees decide to go back and take one more look at Eric Devendorf’s shot at the end of regulation. “On second thought, now that we look at it again, it was good. Let’s go home.”
6. In a fine display of college spirit, the teams agree to a game of beer pong. Only upperclassmen of legal-age are eligible, of course. But alas, the game of 10-cup goes into, you guessed it, overtime.
7. After failing to best one another, the rivals agree to join forces and play the semifinal as the Syrnecticuse Orskies. West Virginia and the rest of the Big East will not stand a chance!
8. When both coaches are informed of the Big East’s 1:00 AM curfew, the players disperse to their respective hotel rooms. The last player on the bench from each school finishes the game: playing Xbox Live.
9. The public address announcer calls for any former players in attendance to proceed to the court for one last moment in the spotlight. In street clothes, Gerry McNamara drains six 3-pointers to seal it for the Orange.
10. And finally, in a moment that will define the history of Big East basketball, the Madison Square Garden crew sets up the arm wrestling table for the final battle to decide who advances and who goes home.
Syracuse and UConn.
A trip to the semifinal on the line.
The two combatants cautiously walk to center court.
Otto the Orange versus Jonathan the Husky.
Best out of three.
March Madness personified.
Justin Jones contributed to this article, and in his mind, actually wrote it.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Terps Hoping to Recapture Georgia Dome Magic
It’s a position Gary Williams has found himself in too many times in recent history despite an astonishing coaching career that includes over 600 victories and a national championship in 2002.
The seventh-seeded Terrapins find themselves needing an impressive run in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, beginning with Thursday night’s matchup against North Carolina State, to gain a realistic chance to be invited to the NCAA tournament on Sunday evening.
Last Sunday’s ill-timed loss to Virginia planted the Terps (18-12, 7-9) on the wrong side of the bubble after an earlier win over North Carolina thrust them back into consideration down the stretch. Consecutive losses to Wake Forest and the Cavaliers prevented Maryland from reaching the .500 mark in conference play, a record that would have likely secured an at-large bid.
With the regular season concluded, Williams and the Terps can only hope to capture the magic from past successes to find their way into the Dance.
How ironic it is that Williams brings his team to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta for the conference tournament, the very edifice where Maryland basketball came full circle and reached its pinnacle only seven years ago. Seven long years in the eyes of many of the program’s followers.
The image of Juan Dixon launching the ball toward the Georgia Dome roof in the final second of Maryland’s 64-52 victory over Indiana to win the title continues to grow fainter as the program encounters the likelihood of missing the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in five years.
The criticism for Williams has gained momentum for several years but never as strongly as it has this season. From his rocky relationship with the athletic department to the perceived failure in recruiting high-profile athletes, Williams has been placed under intense pressure to return the program to national prominence.
If he needs to look for inspiration beyond the school’s history at the Georgia Dome, he should look no further than the 2004 ACC tournament. The sixth-seeded Terps entered the Greensboro Coliseum with a 7-9 conference record and work to do in order to earn an NCAA invitation.
The underdog Terps, led by a sizzling John Gilchrist, proceeded to shock Wake Forest, N.C. State, and Duke to win the tournament and earn an automatic bid.
While this year’s team may be hard-pressed to repeat such an improbable feat, especially having to win four games in the since-expanded tournament, two victories would garner strong consideration from the selection committee. Three victories would almost assure an invitation.
What are this team’s chances of putting together a strong run in Atlanta? It starts with Greivis Vasquez.
Though frustratingly inconsistent, Vasquez is more than capable of providing a Gilchrist-like performance to lead the Terps to a few victories over the weekend.
Vasquez’s triple-double in the North Carolina win as well as his 33-point performance in a road win over N.C. State showed how capable the junior guard is of taking over a game. If Vasquez can find a similar rhythm to the one he had in those contests, he can lead the Terps to victory against anyone in the ACC.
When looking back upon the Terps’ 2004 conference tournament championship, Gilchrist was the overwhelming hero, but others such as forwards Jamar Smith and Travis Garrison as well as little-used Mike Grinnon, and his key free throws, provided strong support to upset top-seeded Duke.
The Terps cannot solely rely on Vasquez to carry them to victory. Williams must find another player to step up in the conference tournament, a tall order facing a team that lacks any strong inside presence. Senior Dave Neal has played well recently, but the forward lacks the athleticism to compete against the tougher big men of the conference.
Landon Milbourne has been the most improved player on the team, averaging 12.2 points per game, but has seemingly disappeared down the stretch, bottoming out with two points against Wake Forest in the next-to-last regular season game.
Whether it’s a reemerging Milbourne or another candidate such as Cliff Tucker, who had 22 points in the North Carolina win, the Terps need a supporting cast for Vasquez if they have any visions of playing beyond Thursday or Friday.
Williams must instruct his team to treat the conference tournament opener against N.C. State as though it were the first round of the NCAA tournament. The stakes are just as high, and as an added bonus, Maryland faces a team they beat less than two weeks ago, not a mystery tournament team that you often face in the first round.
If Maryland is able to get by the Wolfpack, they meet Wake Forest on Friday night, a team that bested them by only two points last week. While it would be no easy task, Maryland certainly proved they can compete with the Demon Deacons.
An opportunity is there for Maryland to recapture the NCAA invitation that slipped through its grasp in the disappointing loss to Virginia. Williams thrives in the underdog role, so you can never count his team out, even with the underwhelming talent on the roster.
If the Terps are unable to make any noise, the reality of another disappointing season will face Williams as he begins the offseason and the daunting challenge of boosting recruiting for a program that has seen the shine vanish from its vast success earlier in the decade.
The image of Dixon will only continue to fade, replaced by the blinking question marks facing the coach and his struggling program if they’re unable to recapture some of that magic left behind on the Georgia Dome floor only seven years ago.
Seven long years.
The seventh-seeded Terrapins find themselves needing an impressive run in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament, beginning with Thursday night’s matchup against North Carolina State, to gain a realistic chance to be invited to the NCAA tournament on Sunday evening.
Last Sunday’s ill-timed loss to Virginia planted the Terps (18-12, 7-9) on the wrong side of the bubble after an earlier win over North Carolina thrust them back into consideration down the stretch. Consecutive losses to Wake Forest and the Cavaliers prevented Maryland from reaching the .500 mark in conference play, a record that would have likely secured an at-large bid.
With the regular season concluded, Williams and the Terps can only hope to capture the magic from past successes to find their way into the Dance.
How ironic it is that Williams brings his team to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta for the conference tournament, the very edifice where Maryland basketball came full circle and reached its pinnacle only seven years ago. Seven long years in the eyes of many of the program’s followers.
The image of Juan Dixon launching the ball toward the Georgia Dome roof in the final second of Maryland’s 64-52 victory over Indiana to win the title continues to grow fainter as the program encounters the likelihood of missing the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in five years.
The criticism for Williams has gained momentum for several years but never as strongly as it has this season. From his rocky relationship with the athletic department to the perceived failure in recruiting high-profile athletes, Williams has been placed under intense pressure to return the program to national prominence.
If he needs to look for inspiration beyond the school’s history at the Georgia Dome, he should look no further than the 2004 ACC tournament. The sixth-seeded Terps entered the Greensboro Coliseum with a 7-9 conference record and work to do in order to earn an NCAA invitation.
The underdog Terps, led by a sizzling John Gilchrist, proceeded to shock Wake Forest, N.C. State, and Duke to win the tournament and earn an automatic bid.
While this year’s team may be hard-pressed to repeat such an improbable feat, especially having to win four games in the since-expanded tournament, two victories would garner strong consideration from the selection committee. Three victories would almost assure an invitation.
What are this team’s chances of putting together a strong run in Atlanta? It starts with Greivis Vasquez.
Though frustratingly inconsistent, Vasquez is more than capable of providing a Gilchrist-like performance to lead the Terps to a few victories over the weekend.
Vasquez’s triple-double in the North Carolina win as well as his 33-point performance in a road win over N.C. State showed how capable the junior guard is of taking over a game. If Vasquez can find a similar rhythm to the one he had in those contests, he can lead the Terps to victory against anyone in the ACC.
When looking back upon the Terps’ 2004 conference tournament championship, Gilchrist was the overwhelming hero, but others such as forwards Jamar Smith and Travis Garrison as well as little-used Mike Grinnon, and his key free throws, provided strong support to upset top-seeded Duke.
The Terps cannot solely rely on Vasquez to carry them to victory. Williams must find another player to step up in the conference tournament, a tall order facing a team that lacks any strong inside presence. Senior Dave Neal has played well recently, but the forward lacks the athleticism to compete against the tougher big men of the conference.
Landon Milbourne has been the most improved player on the team, averaging 12.2 points per game, but has seemingly disappeared down the stretch, bottoming out with two points against Wake Forest in the next-to-last regular season game.
Whether it’s a reemerging Milbourne or another candidate such as Cliff Tucker, who had 22 points in the North Carolina win, the Terps need a supporting cast for Vasquez if they have any visions of playing beyond Thursday or Friday.
Williams must instruct his team to treat the conference tournament opener against N.C. State as though it were the first round of the NCAA tournament. The stakes are just as high, and as an added bonus, Maryland faces a team they beat less than two weeks ago, not a mystery tournament team that you often face in the first round.
If Maryland is able to get by the Wolfpack, they meet Wake Forest on Friday night, a team that bested them by only two points last week. While it would be no easy task, Maryland certainly proved they can compete with the Demon Deacons.
An opportunity is there for Maryland to recapture the NCAA invitation that slipped through its grasp in the disappointing loss to Virginia. Williams thrives in the underdog role, so you can never count his team out, even with the underwhelming talent on the roster.
If the Terps are unable to make any noise, the reality of another disappointing season will face Williams as he begins the offseason and the daunting challenge of boosting recruiting for a program that has seen the shine vanish from its vast success earlier in the decade.
The image of Dixon will only continue to fade, replaced by the blinking question marks facing the coach and his struggling program if they’re unable to recapture some of that magic left behind on the Georgia Dome floor only seven years ago.
Seven long years.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Ray Lewis Experiences Cruel World of Free Agency
The feeling of being unwanted is a sobering, bitter pill to swallow regardless of how successful one has been in his profession.
For Ray Lewis, the silence of his phone has been deafening, reflecting how his actual value contrasts the Pro Bowl linebacker’s lofty goal of scoring one more big payday in a certain Hall of Fame career.
Despite all the talk of playing in Dallas or New York and even the rumor that he would rather retire than return to the Baltimore Ravens, Lewis sits at his Florida home with only one standing offer, the rumored three-year, $24 million offer from the Ravens.
Perhaps he did not realize how good he had it in Baltimore until he saw how cruel the reality of free agency could be for an aging veteran with unrealistic demands.
Lewis is a very proud man, so it is no surprise the rejection from the league’s other 31 teams stings deeply. Still a very productive linebacker at 33, Lewis will unquestionably use the perceived snubbing as motivation in preparing for his 14th season.
But how long will it take Lewis to lick his wounds before calling general manager Ozzie Newsome to accept the Ravens’ contract offer?
From a financial standpoint, the Ravens could easily lower their offer to Lewis after seeing how emaciated the market is for the two-time Defensive Player of the Year.
However, Newsome and the Ravens will not do this, showing more respect for the face of their franchise than he has shown for the organization that drafted him and has treated him well throughout his career.
Since the Ravens lost linebacker Bart Scott and center Jason Brown to lucrative contract offers from the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams respectively, the organization has no choice but to keep its aging leader and prevent an even bigger hole at inside linebacker from opening.
Reducing the offer would not only further sour an already stewing Lewis but would also increase the likelihood of another team jumping into the market for his services.
Owner Steve Bisciotti and coach John Harbaugh insisted the Ravens would value Lewis higher than any other team in the NFL, but Lewis refused to believe he could not earn any more than what Baltimore was offering.
No one can blame the Ravens’ leader for seeking more money, as he has every right to cash in with his final contract, but if Lewis has anyone to blame for his current predicament, it is his representation and, ultimately, himself.
Whoever was advising Lewis about his earning potential in free agency either severely misread the market or was not assertive enough in convincing their client about his actual value.
Or, perhaps that intense pride that has pushed Lewis to be one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the game led to his downfall in this free agent experience.
Regardless of the cause, the situation was handled miserably by Lewis and his people, who portrayed the inside linebacker as a mercenary with no loyalty to the organization that clearly wanted to maintain his services with a generous contract offer.
For the teams rumored to be interested in Lewis for his unquestioned leadership ability, this behavior had to be a red flag when also considering his age. Teams may have viewed his disloyalty to the Ravens as a warning sign that Lewis may not be the easiest to appease if a situation is not to his liking.
This is something the Ravens have known about Lewis for years. His leadership can be outstanding but only when things are going his way.
The inside linebacker has been known to mope and even lash out, as he did following the 2005 season, wanting to be traded if the Ravens failed to acquire a big defensive tackle to keep blockers away from him. When the Ravens drafted Haloti Ngata in 2006, Lewis was suddenly happy again.
It is also common to see Lewis duck out of the locker room without talking to the media following a tough loss.
The Ravens have put up with these behaviors for so long, because Lewis is their guy, and they know what he brings to the football field when he is content.
It may take a few more days to swallow his pride, but Lewis will eventually concede and accept the Ravens’ contract offer. He’ll then probably begin to mend some fences and attempt to save face by claiming his heart was truly with the Ravens, and that Baltimore is “his” city.
And though the Ravens’ front office will privately roll their eyes, they will accept it as the proud Lewis simply being himself. After all, they realize how much Lewis has done for the organization, even if he does not want to acknowledge how much they have done for him.
While hurt feelings are apparent with Lewis, the Ravens, and even their fan base, all will be forgiven when Lewis comes dancing out of the tunnel and creates an absolute frenzy at M&T Bank Stadium in September.
Ultimately, Lewis returning to the Ravens was the way it was supposed to be, but it took a humbling rejection from 31 other teams for him to finally see where he rightfully belongs.
For Ray Lewis, the silence of his phone has been deafening, reflecting how his actual value contrasts the Pro Bowl linebacker’s lofty goal of scoring one more big payday in a certain Hall of Fame career.
Despite all the talk of playing in Dallas or New York and even the rumor that he would rather retire than return to the Baltimore Ravens, Lewis sits at his Florida home with only one standing offer, the rumored three-year, $24 million offer from the Ravens.
Perhaps he did not realize how good he had it in Baltimore until he saw how cruel the reality of free agency could be for an aging veteran with unrealistic demands.
Lewis is a very proud man, so it is no surprise the rejection from the league’s other 31 teams stings deeply. Still a very productive linebacker at 33, Lewis will unquestionably use the perceived snubbing as motivation in preparing for his 14th season.
But how long will it take Lewis to lick his wounds before calling general manager Ozzie Newsome to accept the Ravens’ contract offer?
From a financial standpoint, the Ravens could easily lower their offer to Lewis after seeing how emaciated the market is for the two-time Defensive Player of the Year.
However, Newsome and the Ravens will not do this, showing more respect for the face of their franchise than he has shown for the organization that drafted him and has treated him well throughout his career.
Since the Ravens lost linebacker Bart Scott and center Jason Brown to lucrative contract offers from the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams respectively, the organization has no choice but to keep its aging leader and prevent an even bigger hole at inside linebacker from opening.
Reducing the offer would not only further sour an already stewing Lewis but would also increase the likelihood of another team jumping into the market for his services.
Owner Steve Bisciotti and coach John Harbaugh insisted the Ravens would value Lewis higher than any other team in the NFL, but Lewis refused to believe he could not earn any more than what Baltimore was offering.
No one can blame the Ravens’ leader for seeking more money, as he has every right to cash in with his final contract, but if Lewis has anyone to blame for his current predicament, it is his representation and, ultimately, himself.
Whoever was advising Lewis about his earning potential in free agency either severely misread the market or was not assertive enough in convincing their client about his actual value.
Or, perhaps that intense pride that has pushed Lewis to be one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the game led to his downfall in this free agent experience.
Regardless of the cause, the situation was handled miserably by Lewis and his people, who portrayed the inside linebacker as a mercenary with no loyalty to the organization that clearly wanted to maintain his services with a generous contract offer.
For the teams rumored to be interested in Lewis for his unquestioned leadership ability, this behavior had to be a red flag when also considering his age. Teams may have viewed his disloyalty to the Ravens as a warning sign that Lewis may not be the easiest to appease if a situation is not to his liking.
This is something the Ravens have known about Lewis for years. His leadership can be outstanding but only when things are going his way.
The inside linebacker has been known to mope and even lash out, as he did following the 2005 season, wanting to be traded if the Ravens failed to acquire a big defensive tackle to keep blockers away from him. When the Ravens drafted Haloti Ngata in 2006, Lewis was suddenly happy again.
It is also common to see Lewis duck out of the locker room without talking to the media following a tough loss.
The Ravens have put up with these behaviors for so long, because Lewis is their guy, and they know what he brings to the football field when he is content.
It may take a few more days to swallow his pride, but Lewis will eventually concede and accept the Ravens’ contract offer. He’ll then probably begin to mend some fences and attempt to save face by claiming his heart was truly with the Ravens, and that Baltimore is “his” city.
And though the Ravens’ front office will privately roll their eyes, they will accept it as the proud Lewis simply being himself. After all, they realize how much Lewis has done for the organization, even if he does not want to acknowledge how much they have done for him.
While hurt feelings are apparent with Lewis, the Ravens, and even their fan base, all will be forgiven when Lewis comes dancing out of the tunnel and creates an absolute frenzy at M&T Bank Stadium in September.
Ultimately, Lewis returning to the Ravens was the way it was supposed to be, but it took a humbling rejection from 31 other teams for him to finally see where he rightfully belongs.
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